Daniel Jeffries I am an author, futurist, systems architect, public speaker and pro blogger. September 26th Tweet This. Prediction is a tricky business. Arthur C.
Clarke, one of the greatest sci-fi writers of all time, saw the coming of satellites and GPS , as well as the cloud, the Internet and telecommuting but by his own admission he overestimated the importance of rockets and failed to see the importance of a prototype laptop a company gifted to him to write his next novel. We can never see black swan events or completely unexpected technology try explaining a computer and the Internet to an 18th century farmer but we can do a kind of Monte Carlo analysis of tomorrow and see the major pathways spinning out into infinity.
In fact, most people get the future laughably wrong so before we leap into our predictions, we need to understand why so we can try to avoid the same mistakes. The first reason people get the future so wrong is because they dedicate about five minutes to looking at something before they form an opinion on it. Unfortunately, many people live almost their entire lives at this level and their opinions are worth zero when it comes to seeing new trends and developments.
The second major reason people get the future so wrong is it goes against everything they understand about the world. They had every advantage and they blew it. They mistook the past for the future and they paid a heavy price by going bankrupt as the market roared past them. To see the future you have to be able to step outside of yourself, forget your past successes and see beyond your current understanding. A third major reason people fail to see the future is because it challenges their position of power.
Asking these people about Bitcoin is like asking a taxi driver what he thinks about Uber or a horse and buggy manufacturer what he thinks about cars. Their opinions are worth less than nothing. The fourth major reason people screw up predictions is because they mistake their opinion for reality. One is the map and one is the territory. Take this now infamous article by Clifford Stoll from Newsweek in that declared the Internet a total failure poised for imminent collapse.
Stoll writes:. What an idiot! Check it out:. Stoll saw the future, he just refused to see it. If he managed to get out of his own way and just observe instead of interpreting and filtering what he saw , the article would have gone down in history as one of the most forward thinking and accurate ever written. That brings us to our next reason. The fifth reason people get the future wrong is a complete and total lack of patience. The waiting is the hardest part.
It takes patience to let things develop naturally. Creativity requires setbacks and failures and tremendous tenacity. Once you expose your idea to the reality of rust, gravity and friction, things tend to fall apart. No plan survives contact with the enemy. Reality is a whetstone that either shatters you or sharpens your ideas. A classic example of the real creative process and how long it takes comes from George de Mestral, the inventor of Velcro.
He first came up with the idea in , after taking his dog for a walk in the woods and seeing a bunch of burrs attached to his fur. He started working on recreating the tiny hooks in and it took him ten years to make it work and mass produce it. After that he opened his company in the late s, he expected immediate high demand.
The rest of the world only cares about the problems things solve for them not the idea or ideology behind it. Soon after the ski industry noticed it would work on boots. Lastly, we can take one more lesson from Stoll before I launch into my predictions for crypto. His biggest mistake is the sixth and final reason people are blind to the future. He took current inventions, air lifted them forward and imagined them as the solution to future problems. Current inventions solve current problems.
Future problems will take brand new solutions. In the article Stoll mentions that CD books would never replace real books. He was right that reading books on CD with a crappy CRT monitor that rips apart your retinas was a miserable experience. But understanding that helps us understand the necessary characteristics of a future solution. CDs are clunky. Monitors back then were blurry and hard to read. They hurt the eyes. Computers were huge and not very portable.
Even laptops were bricks that burned your legs that nobody would want to read a damn thing on. Books are heavy too. And they can easily get lost or damaged by the elements. People in and out of crypto see them as bubble that will pop, causing prices to crash badly. We can practically taste the decentralized future.
Any day now. The bubble will pop. Vitalik is right. The apps are hideous and practically unusable. Yet they survived and the best was yet to come. Amazon and Google went on to dominate the world. Innovation is hard work. There are no guidelines, no working templates, no business models to clone. The bubble burst is just the next step. Three years after that the tech will really mature and take off running.
Many governments will not sit by and lose control of the money supply without a vicious fight. Anyone working on a project right now should be anticipating protocol level assaults on decentralized cryptos and designing defenses against them.
A distributed, decentralized DDoS stopping grid, like the one from Gladius is a great first step but there is a lot more work to be done. Governments will lose the battle in the long run, probably in thirty to one hundred years maybe faster depending on how many wars or financial crises strike.
But in ten or twenty years expect very strong government cryptocurrencies to come to power and dominate the flow of money for many, if not most, people around the world. When soldiers invade your house and take everything you own suddenly the need for privacy becomes very real to people. Remember this interview with Snowden about government surveillance on the John Oliver show? The only time they care is when the government has a picture of their dick on file.
People will adopt government cryptos like good little sheep without a second thought. Count on it! Of course, in many ways government issued cryptocurrencies are utterly ridiculous, as Naval Ravikant points out in his epic blockchain tweetstorm:. By not allowing a single group to control or change the rules arbitrarily, decentralized cryptos and apps provide a powerful set of checks and balances against harmful actions to the system.
Government crypto will represent a total and complete corruption of that idea. They will absolutely outlaw physical cash and they will do it under the guise of one of three excuses:. In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars.
That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.
Government cryptos will be a very, very bitter pill to swallow for current true believers in the crypto space but they better get used to them. Better to embrace the current system with blockchain and then overwhelm it from within rather than ignore it so that it becomes hostile. The reasons are simple.
Some governments will love decentralization and others will hate it. Even as some countries openly rail against them, many others will openly embrace decentralized cryptocurrencies, especially the ones who suffered the worst under the dominance of Europe and the US dollar over the last century.
I see the Latin American countries, freewheeling no-holds-barred globalists like Singapore, historical bankers-to-the-world Switzerland and many of the Asian and African countries welcoming decentralized crypto with open arms, if only to stick it to the current empires. But to remain relevant, decentralized cryptos need to move fast.
They need a killer app. To really take root they need that killer app to spread virally across the globe. This will bring existing power players into the system and they will then use that power to defend it against attacks from outside powers. I outlined one of the ways that can happen in my article for gamifying the distribution of money.
There are many, many more. This is a classic example of grafting old inventions onto a new system. I see it as a potential intermediate step.
Maybe a decentralized AI assistant or attention filter?
Can Bitcoin repeat its price peak of winter ? A tough question. There are many speculations on how BTC managed to show such an incredible increase in price. The amount of computing power is often experiencing sharp fluctuations. However, the last decline was the largest in a long time. The introduction of blockchain is crucial for innovation in key technologies and industry transformation, said President Xi Jinping. The president spoke at the 18th board to study the current situation and development trends of the blockchain.
This Internet Thing will Never Work Out
Bitcoin price has shown relative stability in recent times. Many people have bought it at winter highs and are now waiting for price spike. Is there a reason for this? Will the major cryptocurrency go through the roof and are we at the first inning right now? You can easily find out Bitcoin price today. Everyday volatility of Bitcoin is relatively low at the moment, especially comparing with alts from top by market cap. We think that Bitcoin has proven its leadership amongst cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Domination or Hyperbitcoinization
The ultimate success of bitcoin, hyperbitcoinization, contains the possibility of a purposeful and bright future. Inevitable mass adoption will lead to a globally dominant currency.
Pushing all other competitors out means, ultimately, mooning prices. At least one theorist believes the above will happen, and further postulates one hundred million dollars per bitcoin could be in the works as early as He is absolutely devoid of appeals to authority, credentialism, and officialdom.
He can often be heard challenging listeners to not believe. Crypto fame of a kind came his way around Spring of Hyperbitcoinization is his most enduring effort from that time, and he can be credited with the concept and neologism. Years later, the topic has returned in some circles. The piece is less braggadocio and more nuanced than proponents are prone to mention, but it does speak to a time in bitcoin core BTC history when community optimism reigned.
The current store of value talk and digital gold hodl maximalism is somewhat revisionist, which more honest BTC enthusiasts concede. The discussion then was mostly about merchant adoption, medium of exchange qualities, what will bitcoins price be in 2030 prospects of freeing emerging economies from legacy remittance arrangements.
These attributes are no longer highlighted by BTCers. Pseudo-anonymous author Obiwankenobit lays out Mr. In a longer, mathy, graphic-filled essay, he builds the case for a hyper-hyper-hyperbitcoinization even the most optimistic BTC true believers might have trouble getting. You will own your money. Central bank machinations will come to an end. In fact, by up to , satoshis. The satoshi will act as our base accounting unit. You will buy goods and services and be paid in satoshis.
What are your thoughts on hyperbitcoinization? Let us know in the comments section. On Monday, OB1, the development team who created the crypto-infused marketplace Openbazaar, launched a new platform called Haven.
The application… read. The Corazon by Gray is a silver… read. Edward Kelso has written hundreds of articles as a journalist covering a range of topics from international finance, regulation, to cryptocurrency philosophy, interviews with luminaries, and book reviews.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction - $100,000 After 2021 - $1,000,000 After 2025
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These are only some of the nearly insurmountable bitconis of my favorite crypto. One or two of these systems will come to dominate all coins and become the what will bitcoins price be in 2030 to rule them all, uniting many different kinds of coins and running the entire system like a massive fractal that enables countless daughter networks to flourish inside of it. The idea behind this was to introduce the world as the future of payments and the new technology of public distributed ledger called blockchain. Soon after the ski industry noticed it would work on boots. The only time they care is when the government has a picture of their dick on file. This would result in the split of into bitcoin and bitcoin wil. What about scaling? Song of the Cicada Project and the Mystery of Cicada Vitalik is right. The main challenge is that very few people can agree on what is good or bad in a system and ideology tends to warp those concepts into unrecognizable messes. Maybe a decentralized AI assistant or attention filter? By the way, if you want to start a crypto business that everyone will need in the future, solve the inheritance problem. Another cryptocurrency price prediction site is Wallet Investor. Check it out:. Half of those income streams will be automated and passive, likely some kind of crypto UBI. Imagine a software project that requires an insane jn of code, something like ten trillion lines. Unlike in the past, Bitcoin is no longer considered a fad, but a cryptocurrency with the potential to stick around much longer.