Don’t try to catch the exact bottom.
Daniel Jeffries I am an author, futurist, systems architect, public speaker and pro blogger. September 26th Tweet This. Prediction is a tricky business. Arthur C. Clarke, one of the greatest sci-fi writers of all time, saw the coming of satellites and GPS , as well as the cloud, the Internet and telecommuting but by his own admission he overestimated the importance of rockets and failed to see the importance of a prototype laptop a company gifted to him to write his next novel.
We can never see black swan events or completely unexpected technology try explaining a computer and the Internet to an 18th century farmer but we can do a kind of Monte Carlo analysis of tomorrow and see the major pathways spinning out into infinity. In fact, most people get the future laughably wrong so before we leap into our predictions, we need to understand why so we can try to avoid the same mistakes. The first reason people get the future so wrong is because they dedicate about five minutes to looking at something before they form an opinion on it.
Unfortunately, many people live almost their entire lives at this level and their opinions are worth zero when it comes to seeing new trends and developments. The second major reason people get the future so wrong is it goes against everything they understand about the world.
They had every advantage and they blew it. They mistook the past for the future and they paid a heavy price by going bankrupt as the market roared past them. To see the future you have to be able to step outside of yourself, forget your past successes and see beyond your current understanding.
A third major reason people fail to see the future is because it challenges their position of power. Asking these people about Bitcoin is like asking a taxi driver what he thinks about Uber or a horse and buggy manufacturer what he thinks about cars. Their opinions are worth less than nothing.
The fourth major reason people screw up predictions is because they mistake their opinion for reality. One is the map and one is the territory. Take this now infamous article by Clifford Stoll from Newsweek in that declared the Internet a total failure poised for imminent collapse. Stoll writes:. What an idiot! Check it out:. Stoll saw the future, he just refused to see it.
If he managed to get out of his own way and just observe instead of interpreting and filtering what he saw , the article would have gone down in history as one of the most forward thinking and accurate ever written. That brings us to our next reason. The fifth reason people get the future wrong is a complete and total lack of patience. The waiting is the hardest part. It takes patience to let things develop naturally.
Creativity requires setbacks and failures and tremendous tenacity. Once you expose your idea to the reality of rust, gravity and friction, things tend to fall apart. No plan survives contact with the enemy. Reality is a whetstone that either shatters you or sharpens your ideas. A classic example of the real creative process and how long it takes comes from George de Mestral, the inventor of Velcro. He first came up with the idea in , after taking his dog for a walk in the woods and seeing a bunch of burrs attached to his fur.
He started working on recreating the tiny hooks in and it took him ten years to make it work and mass produce it. After that he opened his company in the late s, he expected immediate high demand. The rest of the world only cares about the problems things solve for them not the idea or ideology behind it.
Soon after the ski industry noticed it would work on boots. Lastly, we can take one more lesson from Stoll before I launch into my predictions for crypto.
His biggest mistake is the sixth and final reason people are blind to the future. He took current inventions, air lifted them forward and imagined them as the solution to future problems. Current inventions solve current problems. Future problems will take brand new solutions. In the article Stoll mentions that CD books would never replace real books.
He was right that reading books on CD with a crappy CRT monitor that rips apart your retinas was a miserable experience. But understanding that helps us understand the necessary characteristics of a future solution. CDs are clunky. Monitors back then were blurry and hard to read. They hurt the eyes. Computers were huge and not very portable.
Even laptops were bricks that burned your legs that nobody would want to read a damn thing on. Books are heavy too. And they can easily get lost or damaged by the elements. People in and out of crypto see them as bubble that will pop, causing prices to crash badly. We can practically taste the decentralized future. Any day now. The bubble will pop. Vitalik is right. The apps are hideous and practically unusable. Yet they survived and the best was yet to come. Amazon and Google went on to dominate the world.
Innovation is hard work. There are no guidelines, no working templates, no business models to clone. The bubble burst is just the next step. Three years after that the tech will really mature and take off running. Many governments will not sit by and lose control of the money supply without a vicious fight. Anyone working on a project right now should be anticipating protocol level assaults on decentralized cryptos and designing defenses against them.
A distributed, decentralized DDoS stopping grid, like the one from Gladius is a great first step but there is a lot more work to be done. Governments will lose the battle in the long run, probably in thirty to one hundred years maybe faster depending on how many wars or financial crises strike.
But in ten or twenty years expect very strong government cryptocurrencies to come to power and dominate the flow of money for many, if not most, people around the world. When soldiers invade your house and take everything you own suddenly the need for privacy becomes very real to people.
Remember this interview with Snowden about government surveillance on the John Oliver show? The only time they care is when the government has a picture of their dick on file. People will adopt government cryptos like good little sheep without a second thought.
Count on it! Of course, in many ways government issued cryptocurrencies are utterly ridiculous, as Naval Ravikant points out in his epic blockchain tweetstorm:. By not allowing a single group to control or change the rules arbitrarily, decentralized cryptos and apps provide a powerful set of checks and balances against harmful actions to the system. Government crypto will represent a total and complete corruption of that idea. They will absolutely outlaw physical cash and they will do it under the guise of one of three excuses:.
In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger.
It works the same way in any country. Government cryptos will be a very, very bitter pill to swallow for current true believers in the crypto space but they better get used to them. Better to embrace the current system with blockchain and then overwhelm it from within rather than ignore it so that it becomes hostile. The reasons are simple. Some governments will love decentralization and others will hate it. Even as some countries openly rail against them, many others will openly embrace decentralized cryptocurrencies, especially the ones who suffered the worst under the dominance of Europe and the US dollar over the last century.
I see the Latin American countries, freewheeling no-holds-barred globalists like Singapore, historical bankers-to-the-world Switzerland and many of the Asian and African countries welcoming decentralized crypto with open arms, if only to stick it to the current empires. But to remain relevant, decentralized cryptos need to move fast. They need a killer app. To really take root they need that killer app to spread virally across the globe.
This will bring existing power players into the system and they will then use that power to defend it against attacks from outside powers. I outlined one of the ways that can happen in my article for gamifying the distribution of money. There are many, many more. This is a classic example of grafting old inventions onto a new system.
I see it as a potential intermediate step. Maybe a decentralized AI assistant or attention filter?
When Will the Last Bitcoin be Mined?
If you cut the information inside computers into smaller pieces, you will find 1s and 0s. These are called bits. You already know about coins. Bitcoins are just the plural of Bitcoin. They are coins stored in computers. They are not physical and only exist in the digital world!
The Final Frontier
Bitcoin is like gold in many ways. Like gold, bitcoin cannot simply be created arbitrarily. Gold must be mined out of the ground, and bitcoin must be mined via digital means. Linked with this process is the stipulation set forth by the founders of bitcoin that, like gold, it must have a limited and finite supply. In fact, there are only 21 million bitcoins that can be mined in total. Once miners have unlocked this many bitcoins, the planet's supply will essentially be tapped out, unless bitcoin's protocol is changed to allow for a larger supply. Supporters of bitcoin say that, like gold, the fixed supply of the currency means that banks are kept in check and not allowed to arbitrarily issue fiduciary media. What will happen when the global supply of bitcoin reaches its limit? This is the subject of much debate among the followers and aficionados of all things cryptocurrency.
What is happening with bitcoin?
Janet Street-Porter. Peter SmyrniotisVictory Square Technologies. Zuckerberg to tell Congress that Libra crypto project will 'extend America's financial leadership'. That discipline is how they control themselves when the market is waht. Thirdly, and probably most importantly, Bitcoin can only confirm 7 transactions per second. If bitcoin remains to be regarded as a store of value, bitcoin will collapse in the next few years. We need something better and completely automated. September 26th Look you stuck with me this long so stick with me a little longer so I can explain. To pay anonymously via Euro, in contrast, you either need to hand over Euro bills face to face. They need a killer app. If he really wanted to guide it he could have stuck around gonig Linus did with Pair trading bitcoin. But problems with scaling and security have prevented both occurrences from happening. Not only this, but the creation of Bitcoin has encouraged more than 1, different cryptocurrencies to enter the market to date. It may seem that the group of individuals most directly affected by the limit of the bitcoin supply will be the bitcoin miners themselves.